Modelling of Ozone and Secondary Organic Aerosol across Europe: Results from the EMEP models

摘要

For over two decades, models from EMEP MSC-W have been used to aid governments in their design of control strategies to reduce air pollution in Europe. Indeed, EMEP long-range transport models (e.g. Eliassen and Saltbones, 1983) played a key role in even the first UN-ECE Protocol on sulphur, signed in Helsinki in 1985. Modelling demonstrated that sulphur could be transported many 100s of km from the source, and was used to quantify the contribution of each country to acid deposition across Europe. The sulphur model developed in this early work has been steadily extended and improved to give today's EMEP models for acidification, ozone and most recently aerosols. In recent years the EMEP models have been used to develop complex and ambitious international agreements, notably the UN-ECE "Gothenburg Protocol" and the European Union's National Emissions Ceiling (NEC) Directive. It is anticipated that the next round of negotiations for both of these organisations will also make heavy use of the EMEP models; with much more focus on particulate matter and hence both inorganic and organic aerosols. Given the importance of the EMEP models in this context, it is important that these models are thoroughly evaluated, and that they reflect the scientific consensus on air pollution physics and chemistry. This paper summarises some work on the capabilities of the latest photo-oxidant models, and presents some findings of the most recent explorations concerning secondary organic aerosol formation.