EXPERT JUDGMENT RESOLUTION IN TECHNICALLY-INTENSIVE POLICY DISPUTES

摘要

The complexity of many contemporary social issues has lead to an increased reliance upon experts in public decision-making. A difficult problem in the resolution of technically-intensive policy disputes arises when credible experts disagree on scientific and technical issues that have potentially broad policy implications. In this paper, we present a conceptual framework for expert judgement resolution. The proposed framework consists of three basic elements: (ⅰ) A taxonomy of sources of expert disagreement; (ⅱ) A qualitative basis for diagnosing sources of expert disagreement; and (ⅲ) A set of possible disagreement closure modes and their associated resolution types. We conclude with a discussion of the relevance of these concepts for public decision-making.