Buying Down the Cost of Fuel Cells with Hydrogen Fueled Fleet Vehicles

摘要

Fuel cell vehicles are making rapid technical progress. However, the path toward commercialization is complicated by the issue of fuel choice. The design of the fuel cell vehicle is simpler with onboard hydrogen storage, and the vehicle is likely to be lower cost and more energy efficient than one using liquid fuels (such as gasoline or methanol) with an onboard fuel processor. But developing a refueling infrastructure is seen as more costly and challenging for hydrogen than for liquid fuels. For automobiles, availability of compact, low cost onboard hydrogen storage systems is also an issue. Recent studies suggest that the best long-term option for fuel cell vehicles is hydrogen in terms of vehicle costs, lifecycle costs and potential environmental benefits. However, it is often asserted that use of a liquid fuel such as gasoline or methanol will be required (at least initially) to get enough fuel cell vehicles on the road to buy down the cost via mass production to levels competitive with other low emission vehicles. Here we explore the possibility of going directly to hydrogen, buying down the cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles with centrally refueled fleet markets. Fleet vehicles are attractive initial markets for hydrogen fuel cells for several reasons: 1) often they are centrally refueled so that an extensive new refueling infrastructure is not required, 2) refueling and maintenance can be done by technically trained personnel in a controlled environment, 3) onboard storage constraints are less stringent for fleet operations than for private automobiles, and current compressed gas hydrogen storage would be adequate. Estimates of the size of centrally refueled fleet markets are made for cars, trucks and buses in the US and for buses globally. Mandated US markets for zero emission vehicles and alternative fueled fleet vehicles are discussed. We then assess whether fleet markets are large enough to buy down the cost fuel cell vehicles, and explore the issue of fuel choice during buy down. The projected cost of fuel cell vehicles as a function of cumulative mass production is calculated. The cumulative production and cost required for fuel cell vehicles to reach lifecycle cost competitiveness with advanced internal combustion engine hybrid vehicles is estimated. Buy down costs are compared for hydrogen, methanol and gasoline fuel cell vehicles. The potential impact of including the costs of environmental externalities (air pollutants and greenhouse gases) is explored. Hydrogen infrastructure development for fleet vehicles is discussed. Finally, a commercialization strategy for using centrally refueled fleets to buy down the cost of hydrogen fuel cells is sketched.