Managing PM_(10) in the Las Vegas Valley

摘要

This paper describes the process for integrating a system dynamics (SD) model for managing coarse particulate matter (PM_(10)) in the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The LVV is currently categorized as a serious non-attainment area for PM_(10) by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The project client, the Clark County Department of Air Quality and Environmental Management (DAQEM), must provide a predictive model to show future levels of PM_(10) will be below EPA limits. The previous "proportional rollback" model is described along with its limitations. Three different approaches to modeling the problem, including advantages and disadvantages of each approach are described. The chosen approach, a modification of the original system conceptualization, improves many of the drawbacks of the previous model but still has many limitations (including not approaching the problem from a systems perspective and lack of dynamics). Unfortunately, although the client is open to system dynamics and an approach that focuses on causality, there are restrictions to what may be instituted based on prior EPA approval. One interesting reflection of the study is that it shows first hand some of the barriers in implementing system dynamics for environmental management.