Analysis on How China Timber Market Impacted from Russian Export Tariff Increase

摘要

China relies on Russia's exports for its supply of logs. In Ded 2009, the Russian government announced an increase from its 6.5% export tariff on the value of softwood logs to 80%, effective January 2010. We simulated the impact on the Chinese forest products market from this tariff increase with our China Timber Market Model. We conclude that the northeastern region will be affected the most and the pressure on domestic harvests will increase, given this large tariff increase. Harvests in the middle region of China will increase by about 2%, while the southern and western regions will barely be impacted. On the whole, the total harvest in China will increase by 3.3%. From the perspective of inter-regional trade, it appears that timber from the middle region will flow into the northeast to compensate for the impact from a decrease in timber imports. We make some suggestions accordingly.