A Study on Real Estate Cycles and Relevant Issues in the Global Financial Crisis

摘要

Faced with the shocks of the current global financial crisis, this study examines the nature of real estate cycles, identifies the many different types of interdependent cycles that affect real estate performance and presents strategies for dealing with multiple interrelated cycles. Understanding the complex and dynamic macro-to-micro cycle relationships is believed to be the foundation for understanding real estate performance in a specific market, submarket and site-specific location. Successful cycle strategies that achieve above-market returns over the long run are dependent on this understanding, good market timing and a degree of contrarianism. And then seven cycle models are presented, to seek to measure cyclical impacts on key investment variables in an ex ante framework, to put forward the key strategic and decision implications for investors.