Mathematical Model That Describes the Transmission of African Swine Fever Through Ticks and Infected Pigs

摘要

African swine fever(ASF) is an infectious viral disease for domestic pigs and wild pigs that is caused by a DNA called African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV), which is present in several parts of Africa, Europe, Asia and recently in China and Mongolia. The disease causes high mortality rate in pigs which has significant socioeconomic effects on the country. The aim of this paper is to determine the influence of the ticks and infected pigs on the transmission of the disease. We formulate a mathematical model that describes the transmission of Africa swine fever between the ticks and pigs and also among the pigs themselves. The basic reproduction number RO was obtained using next generation matrix and the existence of equilibria was investigated. Our numerical simulation results with numerical example shows that, there is an effect of the ticks and infected pigs on the spread of the disease and the infected pigs can recover from the disease. Furthermore, the reactive rate, infection rate from infected ticks to susceptible pigs, progression rate from exposed pigs to infectious pigs, the recovery rate from carrier pigs to susceptible pigs and tick’s growth rate have effects on transmission and controlling of the disease. According to our simulation results we made some suggestions to control and reduce the spread of African swine fever.