Testing Minimax for Rational Ignorant Agents

摘要

Richard Pettigrew [13,14] defends the following theses: (1) epistemic disutility can be measured with strictly proper scoring rules (like the Brier score) and (2) at the beginning of their credal lives, rational agents ought to minimize their worst-case epistemic disutility (Minimax). This leads to a Principle of Indifference for ignorant agents. However, Pettigrew offers no argument in favour of Minimax, suggesting that the epistemic conservatism underlying it is a "normative bedrock." Is there a way to test Minimax? In this paper, we argue that, since Pettigrew's Minimax is impermissive, an argument against credence permissiveness constitutes an argument in favour of Minimax, and that arguments for credence permissiveness are arguments against Minimax.