Demographic Transition: Introducing Multi-Agent Based BDI Platform

摘要

Multi-Agent based simulation (MAS) use to simulate real-world complex social problems. In demographic study, due to heterogeneous behaviours of each individual living in various social contexts, demographic problems can't be solved with traditional microsimulation approach. In our paper, we introduce the BDI (Belief, Desire and Intension) model for the motherhood transition of demographic process. BDI platform deals with agents having adaptive nature in a multi-agent platform. In this platform, the modellers can separate the activity to select a plan from an active plan library. Using multi-agent model, this paper explores how the desires and intensions of each agent at micro-level can be transmitted through the whole social system to effect the macro-level changes. In BDI architecture, agent are able to update dynamically or select new goals intelligently in order to achieve their already set goals. The preliminary results validate our theoretical model by closely replicating the fertility rate with actual results. Our study provides an alternative platform for social scientist and demographers to strengthen the extent of demographic analysis through MAS based BDI platform.