Estimating Uncertainty Bounds for Modified Configurations from an Aerodynamic Model of a Nominal Configuration

摘要

Two different methods of extending the model form uncertainty bounds from an aerodynamic model of a nominal aircraft configuration to a model of a modified configuration are proposed and examined. The first method is less conservative and neglects additional uncertainty due to the change in configuration, while the second method is more conservative and attempts to account for the effect of tuning the baseline model. A model for the Aerostar aircraft, used as a research aircraft by NAVAIR, was selected to study these methods as it has a range of modified configurations and uncertainties. These methods allow for the approximation of uncertainty bounds for a modified configuration without performing additional flight tests, model tuning or uncertainty quantification on the modified configuration, allowing non-deterministic flight dynamics simulations and airworthiness certification to be performed more quickly.