Modelling the climate change effects on Malaysia's oil palm yield

摘要

An attempt to model the climate change/variability and its lagged effects on oil palm yield using a small sample set of yield data in the Malaysian context is elaborated. Literature reviewed for this work reveals the nature and extent of the effects of recent El Nino/ La Nina events on essential crops in some specific parts of the Asia Pacific region. Recent research on the change effects on corn and wheat continue to emphasise the need to better understand this phenomenon to forecast and prepare for the future especially, to deal with the consequences. The socioeconomic implications of the change effects are deemed to be significant as the impacts on yield are described to be stochastic. The results of this initial research using 36 monthly lag climate anomalies and oil palm yield data from Peninsula and Borneo (Sabah and Sarawak) Malaysia reveal interesting correlations and similarities, between the lag variables and oil palm growth phenology as well as yield.