ASSESSING SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION AND GRID STABILITY USING AN AGENT-BASED MODELING APPROACH (WIP)

摘要

New modeling techniques are needed to model the effect of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) system adoption on power systems. This research develops an approach to simulate the dynamics between the adoption of solar PV technology and energy infrastructure performance. An agent-based model is developed here to simulate the diffusion of rooftop solar PV technology. A cellular automata system is implemented that represents the diffusion of technology through single-family household neighborhoods. The agent-based adoption model is coupled to a power system model, and simulations are performed to determine the effects on grid stability. Residential adoption of PV technology is influenced by four major factors including household income level, economic practicality, environmental benefit, and the effect from communicating within social networks. This research aims to make predictions about the installed capacity of solar PV technology in residential neighborhoods and the effect of PV technology diffusion on grid stability.