Application of Correlation Analytical Method into Basin Runoff Forecast with Single-gauge Rainfall

摘要

Rainfall data of some gauges in the basin is often insufficient. The problem is how to calculate basin-wide average rainfall according to single-gauge rainfall. First, bivariate correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis were introduced. Secondly, taking Hunhe basin in Liaoning province as an example, the correlativity and extent of correlation between single-gauge rainfall and basin-wide average rainfall were studied, and the significance level of correlation coefficients was verified. The result proved that the single-gauge rainfall has high positive correlation with basin-wide average rainfall. Thirdly, the correlograms were established to estimate basin-wide average rainfall even if there is only single-gauge rainfall in the whole basin. With the correlograms historic floods were manipulated according to single-gauge rainfall, and the precision is supernal. The correlation analytical method can be used to forecast runoff for the basins where basin-wide average rainfall is imperfectly gauged. The application shows that this method is simple and feasible.