Simulation-based planning for peacekeeping operations: Selection of robust plans

摘要

This research is part of a proposed shift in emphasis in decision support from optimality to robustness. Computer simulation is emerging as a useful tool in planning courses of action (COAs). Simulations require domain models, but there is an inevitable gap between models and reality - some aspects of reality are not represented at all, and what is represented may contain errors. As models are aggregated from multiple sources, the decision maker is further insulated from even an awareness of model weaknesses. To realize the full power of computer simulations to support decision making, decision support systems should support the planner in exploring the robustness of COAs in the face of potential weaknesses in simulation models. This paper demonstrates a method of exploring the robustness of a COA with respect to specific model assumptions about whose accuracy the decision maker might have concerns. The domain is that of peacekeeping in a country where three different demographic groups co-exist in tension. An external peacekeeping force strives to achieve stability, an improved economy, and a higher degree of democracy in the country. A proposed COA for such a force is simulated multiple times while varying the assumptions. A visual data analysis tool is used to explore COA robustness. The aim is to help the decision maker choose a COA that is likely to be successful even in the face of potential errors in the assumptions in the models.