Impact Analysis of Migration from Super Gasoline to Others of Lower Octane Number in Ecuador

摘要

In 2018, the Ecuadorian government reduced the subsidy of the 90 octane gasoline through the Executive Order 490. This led to a decrease in the consumption of this fuel and a migration to a lower price and octane gasolines. The objective of this research is to analyze the energy and environmental impact of the migration from Super 90 octane gasoline to a lower octane gasolines, known in Ecuador as Extra and Ecopals. For this investigation, we carried out the annual gasoline consumption calculation of the transport sector, in order to study the energy and environmental implications of the issuance of this Executive Order. LEAP (Long - range Energy Alternatives Planning) software was used, which allows calculating energy consumption from data such as: vehicle fleet size, vehicles categories or types, average fuel consumption, annual route and others. Two analysis scenarios were proposed; the first SINDEC that refers to the gasoline consumption pattern before this measure was taken; and, the second, CONDEC, which considers the migration of gasoline consumption from Super to Extra and Ecopals and its effect on the variation of that pattern. One of the results due to this measure, is that, the country increased its fuel consumption by around 3%, with the corresponding increase in the emission of carbon dioxide, which is significantly higher than the reduction obtained by a strategic government project of alternative energy generation.