The Research on Disruptive Technology Identification Based on Scientific and Technological Information Mining and Expert Consultation: A Case Study on the Energy Field

摘要

Disruptive technology identification is of great significance to the development of the countries and enterprises. In this paper, both quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis are combined to propose a disruptive technology identification method based on scientific and technological information mining and expert consultation. In the part of the quantitative analysis, three kinds of scientific and technological information data are involved including papers, patents, and projects, and the word embedding model and clustering technology are applied to dimension reduction and aggregation the scientific and technological information which results in finding "seeds" or "sprouts" of disruptive technologies from the mass scientific and technological information. In the part of the expert consultation, the ranking of potential disruptive technologies is evaluated by an expert questionnaire based on a "three-dimensional index system of technology disruptive potential evaluation." The result of the energy field research is that 45 potential disruptive technologies are identified and their disruptive ranking is determined.