To improve the manufacturing accuracy of NC machine tool, the thermal error model based on multivariate autoregressive method for a motorized high speed spindle is developed. The proposed model takes into account influences of the previous temperature rise and thermal deformation (input variables) on the thermal error (output variables). The linear trends of observed series are eliminated by the first difference. The order of multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) model is selected by using Akaike information criterion. The coefficients of the MVAR model are determined by the least square method. The established MVAR model is then used to forecast the thermal error and the experimental results have shown the validity and robustness of this model.
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