Empirical Research On Driving Factors of Carbon Emission Growth in China and the Policy Effect of Reducing Emission

摘要

China declared the Energy conservation law of the People's Republic of China in 1998,firstly setting energy saving as one of China’s long-term strategic policy,and advocated the new energy efficient development pattern.Then,a series of related policies were issued.Development and utilization of new energy resources is one of the important policies.This paper establishes influence factors model of China's carbon dioxide emissions from 1978 to 2010,and estimates the effect of these policies on China's carbon dioxide emissions.Research indicates that,the decline of energy intensity and the new energy growth play an remarkable role in restraining carbon dioxide emissions,and are estimated to decrease the carbon dioxide emissions by 1.13 and 1.082 billion tons during 1978-2010 respectively.The dummy,which represents the policy variable,has the side-effect on carbon dioxide emissions.The paper tells that the policy effects mostly become endogenous and are shown by the decline of energy intensity and the new energy growth.Besides,economic growth and population expansion are two important factors of promoting carbon dioxide emissions.Finally,in view of the analysis conclusion,this article puts forward the corresponding suggestions.