Dokan Hydropower Reservoir Operation under Stochastic Conditions as Regards the Inflows and the Energy Demands

摘要

this paper presented a way of obtaining certain operating rales on time steps for the management of a large reservoir operation with a peak hydropower plant associated to it. The rules were allowed to have the form of non-linear regression equations which link a decision variable (here the water volume in the reservoir at the end of the time step) by several parameters influencing it.This paper considered the Dokan hydroelectric development KR-Iraq , which operation data are available for. It was showing that both the monthly average inflows and the monthly power demands are random variables. A model of deterministic dynamic programming intending the minimization of the total amount of the squares differences between the demanded energy and the generated energy is run with a multitude of annual scenarios of inflows and monthly required energies.The operating rules achieved allow the efficient and safe management of the operation and it is quietly and accurately known the forecast of the inflow and of the energy demand on the next time step.