Representation of multiple demand scenarios in the mid-term hydrothermal system operation scheduling

摘要

The uncertainties related to the economic situation in Brazil, impacted by several demographic factors, make it difficult to determine a good projection of the load. In this context, assumptions such as GNP, population growth and infrastructure investments are essential to generate the possible energy scenarios. In addition, these projections are of great importance in determining the operation of the hydrothermal plants in a medium term planning. Therefore, this paper presents an alternative to represent the different possibilities of these scenarios in the scope of Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming. Two methodologies are proposed, the first one provides a reduction of operating costs in situations of errors in the predictability of demand and the second is an alternative modeling of the first one used to reduce computational time in situations with large quantity of demand scenarios. The models were tested in the Southeast Brazilian System and the results showed that the methodologies behaved as expected.