Forecasting the Future Cost Modeling Multi-Year Programs

摘要

Forecast models are complex and arguably one of the most important tools for a utility or other organization faced with a need to predict and monitor large capital expenditures over a given time horizon. Forecast models, whether they are for Accelerated Main Replacement Programs (AMRPs), programs to locate existing systems using GPS or any long-term infrastructure program, are vital to program funding requests and helpful tools to quickly view the magnitude of modifications in the program. The decision to fund a large or complex program typically hinges on the ability to demonstrate an understanding of the risk associated with future capital outlays and some level of cost certainty associated with the requested activities. Since forecast models play such a large role in this type of activity, this paper has been written to help the reader gain an understanding of forecast models. This white paper uncovers forecast models and their uses, explains how to obtain meaningful data to fuel the model and, most importantly, how to leverage the model to save money or successfully ask for more.