Fuzzy Exponential Smoothing Model and Its Application in Prediction of Unsafe Event Concerned on Aircraft Collision

摘要

To avoid the emergence of unsafe event concerned on aircraft collision, a hybrid modeling and predicting method combined fuzzy theory and exponential smoothing method is proposed. Fuzzy theory is mainly used to solve thr difficuty in the determination of the smoothing coefficient. The validation result shows that the proposed prediction method presents a good modeling and predicting performance. It is feasible and effective to predict the unsafe event concerned on aircraft collision for management and decision-making.