FutureWaves: a Real-Time Ship Motion Forecasting System employing Advanced Wave-Sensing Radar

摘要

We present the design, prototype, and performance results of a standalone system that predicts vessel motion time-series based upon wide-area ocean-surface radar operational-observations. It is based on development conducted with sponsorship from the United States Office of Naval Research (ONR) under the Environmental and Ship Motion Forecasting (ESMF) program. The key inputs are Doppler-radar measurements of the ocean surface, the vessel characteristics, and measured vessel motions. The principal outputs are a statistical representation of expected vessel motions for various courses and speeds and a precise time-specific prediction of the vessel motions for several minutes. The system also provides detailed, real-time wave characterization in the form of a self-calibrating energy power spectrum, sea heights for various frequency (wave period) bands, and trends of the ocean environment, as well as trends of the measured resultant vessel motions. Meteorological and Oceanographic (METOC) numerical models and direct buoy observations can also be used by the statistical ship-motion forecaster to provide vessel operational planning guidance for hours and days ahead. The developmental prototype system was tested and demonstrated on four different USNS vessels in support of naval operations on two occasions in 2015 and again in July 2016. These demonstrations have borne out the relevance and utility of such a system in enhancing safety of critically sensitive operations and in expanding operational envelopes where the ocean environment can have significant impact. Coined "FutureWaves", the system provides the ship master and crew with the advanced warning information necessary to assess and safely respond to a challenging ocean environment. Mariners have long relied upon seaman's eye to assess the seas and warn of impending waves and potential hazards. FutureWaves revolutionizes this essential seafaring skill by leveraging modern processing strength with an inventive approach that provides a cutting-edge capability that is key to the safe execution of crucial offshore operations involving the transfer of personnel and equipment at sea.