Advanced virtual series for long term assessment

摘要

The estimation of long term wind characteristics is crucial to develop a wind farm project. Reference meteorological stations (when possible), reanalysis data, and during the last years the use of virtual series, derived by means of mesoscale meteorological models, have become widespread with this purpose. The traditional MCP techniques, which use these reference data and the site measurements to long term extrapolation, do this by means of linear adjustment. Nevertheless, meteorological phenomena are non linear and introduce uncertainty to long term estimations.