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Uncertainty Analysis of a Heavily Instrumented Building at Different Scales of Simulation

机译:不同尺度模拟尺度仪表建筑的不确定性分析

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Simulation plays a big role in understanding the behavior of building envelopes. With the increasing availability of computational resources, it is feasible to conduct parametric simulations for applications such as software model calibration, building control optimization, or fault detection and diagnostics. In this paper, we present an uncertainty exploration of two types of buildings: a) of a building envelope's thermal conductivity properties for a heavily instrumented residential building involving more than 200 sensors, and b) a sensitivity analysis of a stand-alone retail building from the U.S. Department of Energy's reference model. A total of 156 input parameters were determined to be important by experts which were then varied using a Markov Order process for the residential building generating hundreds of GBs of data for tens of thousands of simulations. For the commercial building, 20 parameters were varied using a fractional factorial design requiring just 1024 simulations generating data in the order of a few hundred megabytes. These represent a wide variety and range of simulations from a few to tens of thousands of simulations in an ensemble. Depending on the number of simulations in an ensemble, the techniques employed to meaningfully make sense of the information can be very different, and potentially challenging. Additionally, the method of analysis almost always depends on the experimental design. The Markov Order sampling strategy and fractional factorials designs of sampling presented represent two approaches one could employ for large sensitivity analysis of buildings at two different scales of simulations. The paper presents the analysis using descriptive statistics as well as employing multiple analysis of variance techniques for comparison and contrast.
机译:模拟在理解建筑信封的行为方面发挥着重要作用。随着计算资源的可用性越来越多,可以为软件模型校准,建筑控制优化或故障检测和诊断等应用进行参数模拟是可行的。在本文中,我们对两种建筑物的不确定性探索:a)为涉及200多个传感器的重型仪表住宅建筑的建筑物的热导率特性,b)来自独立零售建筑的敏感性分析美国能源部的参考模式。通过专家确定总共156个输入参数是重要的,然后使用Markov订单过程来改变住宅建筑物的Markov订单过程,为数万个模拟产生数百GB的数据。对于商业建筑,使用分数阶乘设计来改变20个参数,需要1024模拟,以几百兆字节的顺序产生数据。这些代表了一个集合中的几千次模拟的各种各样的模拟。根据集合中的模拟数量,所用的技术有意义地对信息感得非常不同,并且可能具有挑战性。此外,分析方法几乎总是取决于实验设计。 Markov阶数采样策略和分数阶乘的抽样设计代表了两种方法,可以在两种不同的模拟尺度上采用大型敏感性分析。本文介绍了使用描述性统计的分析,以及采用多种分析方差技术进行比较和对比。

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