Estimation of spatially detailed electricity demands using spatial statistical downscaling techniques

摘要

Although city scale aggregate electricity demands are usually estimated by multiplying intensity data by floor space, in Japan there are few available sources for municipality level building stock (floor space) data. Hence in this study, we attempt to create municipality level building stock data using the techniques of spatial statistical downscaling. Firstly, this study compares predictive accuracy of several downscaling methods including both deterministic and statistical ones. The results support the use of statistical downscaling methods, which consider spatial autocorrelation or spatial heterogeneity. Secondly, it actually creates building stock data of Japan at municipality level (1803) in 2005 by downscaling prefectural level (49) data employing one of the spatial statistical downscaling methods. Thirdly, using the estimated building stock data, it empirically estimates electricity demand at municipality level.