The Financial Crisis Early-Warning Research of Real Estate Listed Corporation Basted Logistic Model

摘要

The establishment of the financial crisis warning system is convenient for the listing Corporation to find the signal of financial crisis, and then improve the ability of the listing corporation to resist risks. In this paper, we take the real estate listed companies as the research object. Through screening and optimization, we choose asset-liability ratio and other four indicators (from the initial 26 financial indicators that could reflect the overall financial condition of listed real estate companies) to build logistic financial crisis early-warning models. The results of sample group reflect that there are 75% accuracy and 25% misjudgment rate in 2013; The results of prediction group reflect that there are 80.2% accuracy in 2013. We could predict that the effect is more ideal. For the real listed corporation, they could build early-warning model of financial crisis to avoid financial risks.