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The use of simulation in the construction and selection of the optimal budget in the power generation industry

机译:在发电产业的建设中使用模拟在建设和选择中的选择性预算

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The selection and scheduling of a portfolio of projects is a task frequently found among the strategical activities performed by management staff in several industries. When choosing a project to be selected and scheduled into a portfolio, managers have to deal with conflicting criteria, resource constraints, distinct scenarios, and changes during the planning and execution phases. In this work, we describe the functionalities of a decision support system (DSS) prototype designed to help managers make better decisions, when constructing a portfolio of projects. The DSS software was developed to solve portfolio selection problems originating at a large corporation in the power generation industry. In this particular problem, projects have associated risks and costs, and one wants to find a portfolio that reduces risks without surpassing available resources. The prototype implements a heuristic algorithm, which finds solutions nearer the best solution for a real-word input instance, when compared to manually produced solutions. Moreover, it enables decision makers to simulate different scenarios and construct portfolios appropriate to their strategic goals.
机译:项目组合的选择和调度是一项经常在几个行业管理人员执行的战略活动中发现的任务。选择要选择并计划到投资组合中的项目时,管理人员必须处理冲突的标准,资源约束,不同方案以及计划和执行阶段的更改。在这项工作中,我们描述了决策支持系统(DSS)原型的功能,旨在帮助管理人员在构建项目组合时提供更好的决策。开发了DSS软件,以解决发电业中源于大公司的投资组合选择问题。在这个特殊问题中,项目具有相关的风险和成本,并且希望找到一个减少风险而无需超越可用资源的投资组合。与手动生产的解决方案相比,原型实现了一种启发式算法,该启发式算法,该算法,该解决方案越来越近于实际输入实例的最佳解决方案。此外,它使决策者能够模拟不同的场景并构建适合其战略目标的投资组合。

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