Hydropower Integrated Design and Economic Assessment Tool for Use in Preliminary Feasibility Assessments - Modeling Framework

摘要

Recently, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) published a series of initial capital cost equations to support the national-scale economic evaluation for nearly 80 GW of non-powered dam (NPD) and new stream-reach development (NSD) sites across the U.S.. While these equations are capable of providing reasonable ‘ballpark’ cost estimates, they do not account for design considerations which may greatly impact accuracy. To fill this gap, ORNL has developed the Hydropower Integrated Design and Assessment (HIDEA) tool. This tool combines multiple generation technology options, each with specific project design considerations and performance quantification to holistically demonstrate project feasibility. The model’s bottom-up approach supports technology comparison and cost reduction identification, explicitly designed for assessing new and emerging technologies and alternative materials but equally applicable to traditional designs. This paper documents the model’s cost components and describes how design, performance, and economic considerations are modeled. To illustrate how the linked engineering and economic analysis in the model supports the evaluation of site and technology feasibility, this document includes a case study comparing multiple proposed real-world design configurations for a new powerhouse on an existing unpowered Army Corps of Engineers dam. These multiple designs differ significantly in both total capacity and technology choice, and their comparison using the model documented here illustrate the key tradeoffs between performance, cost, and flexibility inherent in hydropower economic analysis. A partial validation on the model’s cost estimating accuracy is performed using information from 17 constructed U.S. projects, showing that modeled initial capital cost estimates are within 50% for 15 projects, within 30% for 10 projects, and within 10% for 6 projects.. Based on this preliminary application, the model is able to reasonably estimate the variability and magnitude of hydropower cost. While not intended to supplant true feasibility studies that include refined engineering, the integrated model provides a robust, design-driven cost and performance tool which may be widely applicable and improves upon more basic methods by more explicitly capturing site- specific design considerations.