Influence of Resource Allocation in the Photovoltaic RD of Japan based on Technology Stock Modeling

摘要

In Japan, crystalline silicon solar cells have a large market share in production, however they have not been a priority in R&D. This paper analyzes the influence of resource allocation in the photovoltaic (PV) R&D in Japan on the price of solar cells and the market share in world solar cell production. Firstly, it finds that the price of solar cells in Japan, with respect to the resource allocation in R&D of crystalline silicon solar cells, did not reduce significantly but maintained a constant level. For the projection, it does not use an experience curve, but models technological progress and price reduction of solar cells in Japan, excluding mass production effects, based on technological knowledge stock modeling. Secondly, solar cell prices in other countries are estimated based on their market share of the world's solar cell production. The estimated solar cell price in Japan is reduced by up to 40% from the actual price, and is competitive to the estimated solar cell prices in China and Taiwan. In this case, Japan could maintain its high share in the world solar cell production for a few years longer. This analysis will contribute to cost-effective R&D resource allocation by a simulation approach.