The Fuzzy Nature of Climate Change Scenarios Maps

摘要

The most important uncertainties present in the global change scenarios are the climate sensibility, represented by the wide variety of GCM's available, and the uncertainty that comes from the different GHG emission scenarios. Starting from a fuzzy climate model constructed with concentrations of GHG, obtained as a result of linear emission pathways, and output temperatures obtained with a deterministic simple climate model (MAGICC) it has been determinate the output fuzzy set of global delta T thresholds such as 1, 2, 3 and 4°C for 2100 and a medium sensibility of 3.0°C/W/m~2. These fuzzy sets are used for assign uncertainties to values of temperature increase and precipitation change percentage taken from a map of regional climate change and for interpret the map in a fuzzy sense. We present some maps of temperature increase and precipitation change percentage for Mexico.