Causal relationship analysis between the development of the communications industry and national economy

摘要

We selected the constant price GDP and telecom business volume as the national economy and communications industry development metrics. First, we analyzed China's communication industry development in China since 1978 according to the industry life cycle theory. Then we used the time series model by detrending to make the two sequences stationary and took Granger causality test. The results show that China's telecommunications industry is in the late growth stage. There is a unidirectional causality from GDP to the direction of the telecom business volume.