Agricultural Drought Regularity and Prediction in Northeast of China

摘要

Drought is the most frequent and greatest impact natural disaster in our country, agricultural drought is the important factor restricting China's agricultural development, so, the study of agricultural drought is of great significance. Based on the data of northeast 1971-2010 drought disaster and crop anomaly index, wavelet analysis and prediction methods of gray system and GIS technology to analysis and predict the law of drought disaster. Result shows that the northeast agricultural drought disaster showing rising trends in time and gradually increased from east to west in space. Expected the next 8-10 years is drought weaken period, in this context, there will be a time scale of the disaster rise in next 4-5 years. The worst-hit year is expected to appear during the period 2014-2015, 2017-2019, 2023-2024 and 2027-2029.