The Effect Assessment for Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle deployment - Improvement of the Assessment Method

摘要

The energy economic model has been developed to assess long term socio-economic effects, resulting from the deployment of economic competitive fast reactors (FR) with innovative technologies. The model is comprised of a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on GTAP-E, an energy environmental version of the "Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP)" model and a dynamic linear optimization type energy system model called "Dynamic New Earth 21 (DNE21)" model. By the coordination of these models, the socio-economic effects on the world could be calculated from needed input data, e.g. population, industrial structure, reference GDP, reference demand of energy, energy technology and fuel cycle cost. In this study, the energy economic model was upgraded to assess the socio-economic effects in the world by dividing into eighteen countries/region including Japan, China, South Korea, and other in Asia. The model also was upgraded to calculate plutonium constrains to derive the FR capacity in detail. Specifically, the function of burn up calculation, using the loading fuel composition and the matrix which indicates the radionuclide transition ratio for each nuclide in the fuel, was added. The matrix was made for forty-seven actinide nuclides composing the loading fuel. The neutron flux and fission reaction of each nuclide were calculated by ORIGEN code to make the matrix, and the normalized value, each nuclide ratio divided by total mass of nuclide, was used as each component of the matrix. Although, the calculated FR capacity by the previous version was increased to the upper limit of input capacity, the calculated capacity by the upgraded model was constrained by plutonium feed. As a result, more accurate FR capacity in the world was assessed in the model. Moreover, based on the assessment results for FR deployment by the energy economic model, the effects of FR exports were assessed. Specifically, it was assumed that the final demand of related industry was increased by the FR exports. Based on the final demand and self-sufficient rate, the domestic demand could be calculated. The domestic demand will spur demand in two ways. One way is the increased intermediate demand of raw materials to fill the domestic demand, other way is the consumption increased effect caused by the increased compensation of employment. As a result of calculating these demands, direct effect of the FR export could be clarified. Also, primary and secondary indirect ripple effects could be calculated from the direct demand. The former is the induced production in related industries to fill the increased intermediate demand of raw materials, the latter is also induced production caused by the increased compensation of employment to fill intermediate demand of raw material and secondary indirect effect. Thus, these indirect ripple effects and direct effect were calculated as the effect of FR exports.