Water environment safety degree assessment based on system dynamics approach

摘要

Water environment safety is increasingly gaining public attention in recent years. To assess the degree of water environment safety, an evaluation index system associated with system dynamics (SD) was built. Water environment safety degree (WESD) is affected by a comprehensive system. As the effective tool for complex system simulation, SD approach was used to simulate the relationship between water environment and social activity. Taking Zhejiang Province as an example, the study was on the assessment of WESD from 2003 to 2010 and prediction from 2011 to 2015 in high, normal, low development scenarios. Results suggest that index parameters should be revised according to the development of society in order to get more accurate and reliable assessment results, and that the approach is reasonable to mimic the actual situation and to predict the future water environment safety degree.