ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF THE FUKUSHIMA DAI-ICHI NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT

摘要

This paper summarizes the activities of the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) during the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant emergency. NARAC activities included (1) daily Japanese weather forecasts and hypothetical release (generic source term) dispersion predictions to provide situational awareness and inform planning for U.S. measurement data collection and field operations, (2) estimates of potential dose in Japan for hypothetical scenarios developed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to inform federal government considerations of possible actions that might be needed to protect U.S. citizens in Japan, (3) estimates of possible plume arrival times and dose for U.S. locations, and (4) plume model refinement and source estimation based on meteorological analyses and available field data. Challenges, lessons learned and recommendations are discussed.