SPATIALLY EXPLICIT DISPERSAL MODELING FOR THE CONSERVATION OF JAGUARS IN COLOMBIA

摘要

The Jaguar (Panthera onca) a near-threatened species (IUCN, 2009) inhabits most of the lowlands (< 2000 m) of central and South America in small and numerous fragmented populations that contrast with the continuous and protected habitat that they enjoyed a few hundred years ago, the Jaguar now occupies only 50% of its historic range. A recent study by Rabinowitz and Zeller implemented a leastcost functional connectivity model of the whole range for the Jaguar and produced a complex path of interconnected populations that identified Colombia as a cornerstone in the efforts of protecting the jaguars corridors. This stationary model is solely based on current landscape configuration and does not take into account population dynamics. We wanted to test the proposed corridors for effectiveness and sustainability and analyze the jaguar situation at a lower scale only for colombian territories. Thus we implemented a spatially explicit dispersal model using only colombian territories to simulate Jaguar population dynamics and evaluate sustainability of previously proposed corridors. Also, based on newly identified jaguar patterns of dispersion we propose a new distribution of connectivity paths between jaguar population units. Results support the existence of connectivity corridors between jaguar population units, but support the hypothesis that connectivity between populations from Central and South America is highly threat.