Applying Bayesian Network Approach to Scenario Analysis of Economic Policy:A Case Study on the High-tech Zone in China

摘要

This paper provides a decision analysis framework for scenario analysis of macro economic policy using Bayesian Network model.Bayesian networks is a useful tool to analyze the complex structure,which allow users to estimate the chance that a management intervention will have a particular effect and then investigate the consequences of their uncertainty.The choice of the case is based on the High-tech Zone in China,which depend greatly on the government policies.However,the previous studies focus mainly on the endowment factors as the Fixed Assets or number of Employees,lacking the analysis of the institutional factors as the initial institution level of the zones.The proposed model is implemented to examine how the institutional policy or management intervention affects the growth of such zones by performing sensitivity analysis.The results of different scenarios analysis show the institutional factors and technology factors are crucial in the growth of the high-tech zones in China.