Study on Box-Jenkins Method of Prediction of Chloride Concentration of Marine Concrete Structures

摘要

The paper introduces life prediction models and existing questions of marine concrete structures exposed to chloride environment; Theory of Box-Jenkins time series prediction method is put forward to analyze the change law of chloride concentration of reinforcement surface of marine concrete structures along with time; Stationary test, model identification and parameter estimate are introduced; Modeling process and best model identification are discussed by means of analyzing laws of chloride concentration changing with time, and predicts using the best model. Analysis results show that the prediction model built by Box-Jenkins method has simple form and high prediction accuracy. What's more, future chloride concentration can be well predicted by history values without determining specific values of durability parameters. This is a new method of life prediction of marine concrete structures.