Self-Dependent or Partly Overseas-Dependent? Scenario Analysis of Future Zero-Carbon Power Generation Systems in Japan Based on an Integrated Model

摘要

The power generation sector is the most significant emission source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Japan, and therefore a zero-carbon power generation system is of vital importance to a future low/zero CO2 energy system. At present, more than 80% of the energy consumption is dependent on overseas imports even after the exclusion of nuclear power. Therefore, this study focuses on zero-carbon power generating systems in Japan by analyzing a self-dependent and a partly overseas-dependent electricity-source mixed scenarios. In scenario 1, a zero-carbon electricity system is proposed based on nuclear power and renewable energy. On the other hand in scenario 2, apart from the domestic supply, electricity/hydrogen/bio-fuels are imported from overseas. The scenario analysis is conducted on an developed integrated model based on the surveyed energy potential and performances of the key technologies involved, including lithium battery, long distance HVDC electric power transmission system, smart control, and so on. Both scenarios were proven to be feasible, but the second scenario is more feasible and robust than the first scenario in terms of resource, technology and economics.