Scenarios Modeling Macroeconomic Impacts of a California-Style Low-Carbon Fuel Standard in Oregon

摘要

INTRODUCTION Low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) policies have been described as economically efficient by proponents and economically disastrous by skeptics. Supporters point out the flexibility of the policy, which simply sets a target for the carbon intensity of the overall fuel mix and allows the affected parties to identify the most practical and cost-effective route to compliance, as a form of allowing the market to select the most efficient approach to the task of reducing emissions. Opponents fear that supplies of clean fuels will struggle to meet this mandated demand, forcing fuel prices dramatically higher. Under this scenario, the policy would constrain the transportation sector and apply the brakes to economic activity in general. The research also lacks consensus: existing studies on the effectiveness and economic impacts of LCFS policies vary in their projections, relying on divergent assumptions and using different analytical methods and tools.