Predicting Soil Erosion under Land-cover area and Climate Changes Using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation

摘要

Loss of soil has become a problem worldwide, and as concerns about the environment grow, active research has begun regarding soil erosion and soil-preservation polices. This study analyzed the trend of soil loss in South Korea over the past 30-year and predicted future soil loss in 2020 using the revised universal soil loss equation. In the period 1975-2005, soil loss showed an increasing trend, the 2005 value represents a 0.59 Mg/ha (2.58percent) increase. Scenario 1 assumes that urban areas have a similar trend to that between 1975 and 2005 and that precipitation amount follows scenario A1B of the IPCC. The soil loss amount for 2020 land-cover map that account for the ECVAM should increase by 25.0approx26.3percent compared to 1975. In the case where the ECVAM is not considered, soil loss should increase by 27.7approx31.8percent. In Scenario 2, in which the urban area and precipitation follow the same trend as between 1975 and 2005, soil loss for 2020 land-cover map that consider the ECVAM will increase by 6.8percent approx7.9percent compared to 1975. When the ECVAM is not considered, soil loss will increase by 9.1approx12.6percent. The environmental and legislative value of preservation should be considered to minimize erosion and allow for more sustainable development.