Future CCS implementation in India: a systemic and long-term analysis

摘要

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) might be an important climate protection technology for coal-rich countries. This paper presents first results of a systemic and long-term analysis of a future CCS implementation in India. It focuses on potential storage formations in the geological subsurface and the geographic match of these sinks with CO_2 emissions of current and future largepoint power plants. The analysis is framed by an overview on India's position on CCS, ongoing Indian research and development projects as well as its international activities. The geological potential for CO_2 sequestration in India is subject to large uncertainty because, so far, only few studies estimated it in a vague manner. A first meta-analysis shows that there is a huge variation between 48 Gt and 572 Gt of CO_2. The main differences between the evaluated studies are the assumed capacities for deep saline aquifers and basalt formations. Taking the ongoing discussion and the existing uncertainties into account, the storage potential might be provided only by aquifers (in the range of 44 to 360 Gt of CO_2) and hydrocarbon fields (2 to 7 Gt of CO_2). The amount of CO_2 emissions possibly available for sequestration is assessed by applying three substantially different long-term energy scenarios for India. These scenarios, indicating pathways between a "low carbon" and a "high carbon" development until 2050, result in cumulated CO_2 emissions between 30 and 171 Gt if all new large-scaled power plants will be based on CCS from 2020 on. Compared with the sink capacities, only the CO_2 emissions of scenario S2 (30 Gt) could theoretically be stored with high certainty. Considering the scenarios S3 and S1, their CO_2 emissions (94 Gt and 171 Gt, respectively) could only be sequestered if the aquifer capacity would prove to be usable. Geological storage sites do not appear to be located close to sources in South West, Central, North and North East India. This first rough analysis means that only those CO_2 emissions occurring in the Western parts of North and West India, the Eastern part of South India as well as the South part of East India might be suited for sequestration nearby. A more detailed source-sink matching will follow in the next phase of the project, including results of expert meetings in India. Furthermore, this analysis will be complemented by an additional assessment from economic, ecological and resource-strategic points of view, which might further affect the potential for CCS