Research on the Urban Population Capacity in Rapid Urbanization Area: A Case Study of Dongguan

摘要

Population capacity is a strategic issues regarding ahieving urban sustainable development. Based on Grey System Theory and supply & demand balance model of work force, this paper put forward a calculated capacity of the economic population in each town of Dongguan from 2001 to 2007. An estimated capacity of future economic compacity of each town in Dongguan is also presented based on a compararison with actual population campacity. It shows that: the job number status is the decisive factor of the work force and population migration in Dongguan, as the capacity of economic population is depending on work force demand; In 2001, most towns in Dongguan was expericing economic population capacity suppression compared with actual population, while in 2007, the economic population capacity is 1,610,000 less than actual population capacity; the estimation of economic population capacity of Dongguan has pointed out that it has room to increase in the future.