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Empirical Study Based on ARMA-GARCH Tempered Stable L#x00E9;vy Processes: Evidence from Chinese Financial Markets

机译:基于ARMA-GARCH的经验研究稳定Lé VY流程:来自中国金融市场的证据

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This paper develops the ARMA-GARCH model and obtain the historical filtered noise sequence based on time series analysis of Shanghai Composite Index (SHI). Then, it estimates the parameters of noise using method of moments estimation and simulates TS measure applying sequence representation method. Further, it fits the noise distribution and tailed distribution employing normal distribution and a - stable distribution, classical tempered stable (CTS) distribution and rapidly decreasing tempered stable (RDTS) distribution, respectively. The empirical results are as follows. Firstly, the random residual noise sequence presents leptokurtic, skewed and heavy-tailed characteristics in Chinese financial markets. Secondly, tempered stable (TS) distribution fits tailed distribution well under the method of moments estimation and exhibits the characteristics of rapidly decreasing jump. Thirdly, the probability of extreme events is 5 times in TS process than that of the normal process, which is in line with markets and be closed to the annual average frequency of Chinese financial markets' turmoils.
机译:本文开发了ARMA-GARCH模型,并根据上海复合指数(SHI)的时间序列分析获得历史滤波噪声序列。然后,估计使用矩估计方法的噪声参数,并模拟TS测量应用序列表示方法。此外,它适用于采用正态分布和稳定分布,经典回火稳定(CTS)分布的噪声分布和尾型分布,分别快速降低回火稳定(RDT)分布。经验结果如下。首先,随机残留噪声序列在中国金融市场中呈现出睑缘,偏斜和尾尾特征。其次,回火稳定(TS)分布在矩阵估计的方法下符合尾部分布,并表现出跳跃迅速下降的特征。第三,极端事件的概率是TS过程中的5倍,比正常过程符合市场,并截止到中国金融市场动荡的年度平均频率。

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