The Spectral Analysis on the Cycle Fluctuations of the Capital Liquidity and Industries Capacity Utilization in China

摘要

In this paper, we use the spectral analysis and cross spectral analysis of time series, to describe and analysis the fluctuations characteristics of the capital liquidity and the industries capacity utilization series from 1999 to 2006.Construct the leading, consistent, lagged index of the capital liquidity. Make the comparison between the three types of index and the fluctuations characteristics of the capital liquidity and the industries capacity utilization series. Finally, use the panel data Granger causality test to verify the relationship of the capacity utilization, fixed assets investment and capital liquidity. The results show that capital liquidity to the manufacturing industry of 28 industry capacity utilization has cyclical fluctuations in the characteristics of the fluctuations in capacity utilization of capital flows are leading to the occurrence of the micro-causes of cyclical fluctuations. The China's excess production capacity in some industries is mainly due to blind investment, excess capacity of a direct threat to banks is excess liquidity.