A New Kind of Optimized Method of Grey Prediction Model and its Applications in Deformation

摘要

Accurately estimating the deformation of rock mass is a very important work for surveyors. Aiming at the limitation of the conventional grey GM (1,1) model, we propose that the structure methods of background value and the initial condition in grey GM(1,1) model have an important influence on this model's precision and adaptableility. From this point of view, an optimized grey model is developed. Firstly, the structure method of background value is obtained by using integrated calculating formula of background value. The new calculating formula of background value gives GM (1,1) model the ability to optimize the modeling results. Then according to the new rest first principle of the grey model, the nth component of X (1) is supposed to be the initial condition of the pessimistic differential model. By using the optimized model to analyze and predict the deformation of rock mass and comparing this optimized model with other models, we finally draw a conclusion that this optimized model is able to improve the precision of prediction and therefore can be applied to deformation data analysis.