Econometrics Model Analysis of the Shipping Market Considering the Financial Crisis Influences

摘要

The U.S. financial crisis makes the global economic show serious sliding trend. Highly international shipping market is hit heavily accordingly. Question is widely concerned that how long will the financial crisis effect to the shipping industry last. Based on theory of maritime economics, this article try to reveal the relation in quantity among international trade, supply and demand of shipping and then predict short run freight of future shipping market by establishing and solving econometrics model. The result shows that freight of shipping market in 2009 will fall further, so the situation of the surplus of transport capacity is hard to turn around in a short term. Related enterprises should formulate corresponding to the strategy to seize the opportunity to survive the crisis.