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Decision Making Theory with imprecise probabilities

机译:决策理论与不精确的概率

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There is an extensive literature on decision-making under uncertainty. Unfortunately, up to day there are no valid decision principles. The widely used principle of maximization of expected utility has serious shortcomings. The first approach in classical theory of choice was formulated axiomatically in the expected utility theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern and is the predominant economic theory for decision making under uncertainty. In another, more advanced approach of Savage subjective expected utility it is assumed that peoples assess the state of the economy and the effects of their behavior in a forward-looking way by processing available information according to standard statistical principles. Experimental evidence has repeatedly shown that people violate the axioms of von von Neumann-Morgenstern-Savage preferences in systematic ways. It resulted in initiation of numerous non-expected theories to take into account for this discrepancy, from weighted utility to rank-dependent utility. There are a lot of non-expected utility models. Each of them has its advantages and disadvantages. One of the most successful attempts so far at capturing experimental results has been Prospect theory. Utility function and non-additive measures used in non-expected utility models to model human preferences are mainly considered as real-valued functions despite of the fact that in reality human preferences are imprecise and therefore are described in natural language (NL). On the other hand, what is not available is a methodology for dealing with second-order uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about uncertainty, or uncertainty2. What is not widely recognized is that in wide sense, real-world uncertainties fall into this category. This applies, in particular, to imprecise probabilities expressed by terms such as likely, unlikely, probable, usually etc.
机译:在不确定性下决策有一个广泛的文献。不幸的是,最多没有有效的决策原则。广泛使用的预期效用的最大化原则具有严重的缺点。经典理论中的第一种方法是在冯·Neumann和Morgenstern的预期实用理论中公理制定,是在不确定性下决策的主要经济理论。在另一个,野蛮主观预期实用程序的另一个先进的方法,假设人们通过根据标准统计原则加工可用信息来评估经济的状态和行为的影响。实验证据一再表明,人们以系统方式违反了冯·诺米曼 - Morgenstern - 野蛮偏好的公理。它导致从加权效用从加权效用开始,从加权效用开始了许多非预期理论。有很多非预期的实用模型。每个人都有它的优缺点。迄今为止捕获实验结果的最成功尝试之一是展望理论。在非预期实用模型中使用的实用功能和非加性措施来模拟人类偏好主要被认为是实际值的功能,尽管实际上人类偏好是不精确的,因此在自然语言(NL)中描述。另一方面,不可用的是处理二阶不确定性的方法,即不确定性或不确定性2的不确定性。没有广泛认识的是,在广泛的意义上,现实世界的不确定性落入了这一类。这尤其适用于不精确的概率,例如可能,不太可能,通常,通常。

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