Applications of Finite Mixture Weibull-Gamma Model for New Automobiles Trial Calibration and Forecasting in Chinese Market

摘要

Although Chinese automobile market grew very fast during the last twenty years, few new automobiles succeed in this high competitive market. Consequently, how to calibrate and forecast the new automobile penetration process becomes a key issue in pursuit of success in Chinese automobile market. This art icle extends the weibull model to finite mixture weibull-gamma model (FWG) by considering difference between individuals and difference between customer groups. Then an empirical analysis was carried out to analyze the accuracy of calibrating and forecasting of FWG model by employing BASS model as a benchmark. Results show that FWG model is mo re accurate in calibrating and forecasting for Chinese new automobiles trial than Bass model.